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Our views 09 January 2020

Bottoming out?

Melanie Baker, Senior Economist

5 min read

Global growth shows more signs of bottoming out in the data. Easing trade tensions (as far as they go) support the outlook. Policy stimulus (monetary and fiscal) in multiple economies will help too.

Although it should pick up, global growth is likely to be unspectacular as we continue to work through this mini-cycle. Uncertainty looks set to linger, fiscal policy is becoming less supportive in the US and stimulus continues to underwhelm in China. Meanwhile, financial conditions look vulnerable to tightening if inflation shows more signs of life.

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