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Our views 12 April 2022

The Ukraine conflict: Navigating short-term inflation volatility

10 min read

Inflation hit 6.2% in the UK for February, its highest point for over 30 years, and we expect it to continue rising this year.

However, it’s impossible to forecast exactly where inflation will peak in the short term. The invasion of Ukraine has stoked aggressive volatility in markets, witnessing a surge in the price of Brent crude oil prices to $139 per barrel, and gas prices to $800 per therm. This was quickly followed by a subsequent cool in prices as markets were soothed by the apparent progress of peace talks (at time of writing).

The potential for further sharp price moves makes it difficult to ignore the short term. But with the unpredictable nature of events in Ukraine, it’s more important than ever to look through the uncertainty of near-term volatility and focus on what we know.

Read in full: The Ukraine conflict: Navigating short-term inflation volatility

The views expressed are those of the author at the date of publication unless otherwise indicated, which are subject to change, and is not investment advice.