Global growth has slowed, and is likely to slow further before bottoming out next year. Recession (US or global) still isn’t central case, thanks to resilient consumers and looser monetary policy. But downside risks have grown in recent months with trade tensions ratcheting up.
Uncertainty related to US trade relations or Brexit isn’t likely to disappear any time soon. Uncertainty is likely to remain a partial drag on business sentiment and global growth in coming quarters and help to prompt a bit more policy stimulus yet.